DocumentCode :
3317589
Title :
A Comparative Analysis of Performances of Econometric, Fuzzy and Time-series Models for the Forecast of Transport Demand
Author :
Profillidis, Vassilios A. ; Botzoris, George N.
Author_Institution :
Democritus Thrace Univ., Xanthi
fYear :
2007
fDate :
23-26 July 2007
Firstpage :
1
Lastpage :
6
Abstract :
The paper attempts to evaluate how the fuzzy method can improve the range of forecast achieved by classic econometric and time-series models. Based on a survey of factors affecting rail passenger demand and using data of rail passenger demand of Greek Railways, the parameters affecting demand are identified with the use of the appropriate statistical testes. Using these parameters, econometric, fuzzy and time-series models are developed. A comparative analysis of the models developed and of their forecasting ability makes clear the range of applicability of each method and the accuracy and the reduction of ambiguity that can be reached with the use of the fuzzy method.
Keywords :
econometrics; fuzzy set theory; rail traffic; time series; comparative analysis; econometric; rail passenger demand; time-series models; transport demand forecast; Airplanes; Costs; Demand forecasting; Econometrics; Economic forecasting; Frequency; Performance analysis; Predictive models; Rail transportation; Time series analysis;
fLanguage :
English
Publisher :
ieee
Conference_Titel :
Fuzzy Systems Conference, 2007. FUZZ-IEEE 2007. IEEE International
Conference_Location :
London
ISSN :
1098-7584
Print_ISBN :
1-4244-1209-9
Electronic_ISBN :
1098-7584
Type :
conf
DOI :
10.1109/FUZZY.2007.4295483
Filename :
4295483
Link To Document :
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