Evaluating delivery point reliability performance for network configurations

The reliability of an electric or telecommunication network configuration is a measure of its ability to continuously meet the demands of all its points of delivery. Customers who have processes that are highly susceptible to sustained and momentary interruptions in their supply network configuration are significantly affected in their ability to produce end products and maintain processes. This paper presents a reliability method based on Bayes theorem to evaluate the reliability at individual delivery points within a given electric utility network configuration. The reliability characteristics of the components of the network are defined by their respective failure rate and repair/replacement rates. The primary advantage of Bayes theorem over other methodologies is the retention of the network configuration and the ability to impose various operating constraints during the recovery of the network from component outages. This paper clearly reveals that the reliability levels at individual points of delivery can vary significantly depending upon the reliability of the power supplies serving a given network configuration.