Credibility assessment of short-term load forecast in power system

Short-term load forecast has a significant impact on the reliable and economic operation of power supplying system. Requirement for power system reserve and AGC capacity demand all relate to forecasting error. Due to lack of credibility assessment methods and tools for forecasting error, dispatching schedule must depend on the worst situation or experiences to conservative estimate the reserve capacity. Forecasting error not only can be affected by forecasting methods but also by its own characteristics of regulation and randomness. Under different internal and external conditions, the credibility of load forecast can be different. According to examples, this paper researches on the regulation of forecasting error change and indicates the regulation related to seasons and time. Credibility assessment of short-term load forecast in power system is created and it is meaningful for decreasing operation uncertainty and improving operation economy.