Identification of long-term scenarios of electricity network development

This paper describes a process for generating scenarios of future electricity network development, and of technologies which might be applied in the electricity supply industry under different future circumstances. The process begins by considering scenarios at the most distant timeframe desired, and then working backwards to identify a set of shorter-term scenarios which interpolate between the long-term picture and current circumstances and trends. The paper discusses important factors which are taken into account in the initial long-term scenario generation, and in the identification of their corresponding shorter-term counterparts. The process is illustrated using its results in generating sets of scenarios, addressing the years 2020 and 2050, of future development of the electricity system in Great Britain. Examples of the resulting medium and long-term scenarios are described and illustrated pictorially