Analysis of prospective energy scenarios using a multiple-level approach

The aim of the presented research is to analyze prospective power supply scenarios for an exemplary Swiss region using a multiple-level model. The considered region is subdivided into its settlement units to form the levels. Each level comprises distinct conversion technologies to supply the load. The power supply is composed of various energy carriers, like electricity, gas and heat, in order to exploit synergy effects. Renewable and conventional power plants produce the demanded heat and electricity. The optimal power supply policy for the region is determined applying a bottom-up optimization approach. Optimality is defined by either minimum costs, or minimum emissions that are necessary for the proposed supply strategy. Two prospective scenarios are examined and compared with respect to their costs, the use of different energy carriers, and their environmental impacts. Depending on the implemented scenario, primary grid-energy demand decreases more significantly than final energy demand because of synergy effects.