Title :
Combining expert systems and the Bayesian approach to support forecasting
Author_Institution :
Graduate Sch. of Bus., Colorado Univ., Denver, CO, USA
Abstract :
An approach to integrating expert system models (for information regarding the present and future problem states) with a Bayesian forecasting model (for information based on the historical data) is presented. Using this approach, past, present, and future information can be processed coherently in an automated system to support forecasting in general. It is shown that this approach is a practical way to provide support to both qualitative and quantitative information processing.<>
Keywords :
Bayes methods; decision support systems; expert systems; technological forecasting; Bayesian forecasting model; expert system models; expert systems; forecasting; historical data; information processing; Bayesian methods; Equations; Expert systems; Humans; Information analysis; Information systems; Predictive models; Problem-solving; Stochastic systems; Vectors;
Conference_Titel :
System Sciences, 1988. Vol.III. Decision Support and Knowledge Based Systems Track, Proceedings of the Twenty-First Annual Hawaii International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Kailua-Kona, HI, USA
Print_ISBN :
0-8186-0843-9
DOI :
10.1109/HICSS.1988.11905
