Simulation and analysis of schedule and cost of product development

In order to simulate and analyze the schedule and cost of product development process (PDP) effectively, Design Structure Matrix was used as structural model in simulation. The schedule and cost models were described by triangular distribution of random variables. The disadvantage of traditional rework probability matrix was analyzed and the concept of rework conditional probability was proposed. It was shown that the relation exists between rework sources and probability of downstream tasks reworking caused by current rework task. According to the limitation of traditional rework impact matrix, the description method of decomposing rework impact was proposed. It solved the problem of how to determine the comprehensive rework impact under the condition of multi-rework sources. The dynamic characteristics of rework iteration were analyzed. According to the simulation algorithm, the simulation platform of PDP was developed based on Matlab. Finally, an example was used to illuminate the validity and practicability of the simulation platform.