Simple power distribution load forecasting method based on fuzzy modelling

Author

Blagajac, S. ; Krajcar, S. ; Skrlec, D.

Author_Institution

Fac. of Electr. Eng. & Comput., Zagreb Univ., Croatia

fYear

2001

fDate

2001

Firstpage

93

Lastpage

97

Abstract

During the last three and a half decades various load forecasting methods have been created. However, these methods cannot forecast future loads in case of severe lack of data, when only few loads are measured in nonconsecutive years. This paper presents two simple methods developed specially to handle such a situation: a simple trending method and a method based on fuzzy modelling. Fuzzy modelling is carried out using a subtractive fuzzy clustering algorithm and recursive least-squares estimator. Both load forecasting methods are illustrated by a numerical example

Keywords

distribution networks; fuzzy set theory; load forecasting; power distribution planning; fuzzy modelling; load forecasting methods; power distribution load forecasting method; power distribution system planning; recursive least-squares estimator; subtractive fuzzy clustering algorithm; trending method; Clustering algorithms; Demand forecasting; Fuzzy systems; Load forecasting; Power distribution; Power engineering computing; Power system modeling; Power system planning; Predictive models; Recursive estimation;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Power Engineering, 2001. LESCOPE '01. 2001 Large Engineering Systems Conference on

Conference_Location

Halifax, NS

Print_ISBN

0-7803-7107-0

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/LESCPE.2001.941633

Filename

941633