DocumentCode :
3352456
Title :
An artificial neural network model for electrical daily peak load forecasting with an adjustment for holidays
Author :
Aboul-Magd, Mohamed Aly ; Ahmed, E.E.-D.E.-S.
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Electr. Power & Machines, Cairo Univ., Giza, Egypt
fYear :
2001
fDate :
2001
Firstpage :
105
Lastpage :
113
Abstract :
This paper presents an artificial neural network model for daily peak load forecasting. The input variables of the model have been selected based on their correlation coefficients. The model uses only three input variables. In addition, a new technique for selecting the training vectors is introduced. Moreover, the model presents a unique adjustment algorithm to compensate the negative impact of holidays´ forecasts. Also, the model uses an adjustment technique for Sundays and Mondays forecasts as these two days showed higher error than the rest of the weekdays. Nevertheless, the model is simple, fast, and accurate. The mean percent relative error of the model over a period of one year is 2.066% including holidays
Keywords :
learning (artificial intelligence); load forecasting; neural nets; power system analysis computing; Mondays forecasts; Sundays forecasts; artificial neural network model; correlation coefficients; electrical daily peak load forecasting; holidays adjustment; input variables; mean percent relative error; training vectors selection; Artificial neural networks; Computer security; Costs; Fuzzy neural networks; Input variables; Load forecasting; Load modeling; Power engineering and energy; Power generation; Predictive models;
fLanguage :
English
Publisher :
ieee
Conference_Titel :
Power Engineering, 2001. LESCOPE '01. 2001 Large Engineering Systems Conference on
Conference_Location :
Halifax, NS
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-7107-0
Type :
conf
DOI :
10.1109/LESCPE.2001.941635
Filename :
941635
Link To Document :
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