Numerical prediction of oil spill trajectory and fate in Pearl River estuary

A numerical model was developed for predicting the oil spill trajectory and fate in the Pearl River estuary. The model has been coupled with a hydrodynamic model, which can generate the necessary current field for oil spill prediction. In this model, the Lagrangian oil particle tracking algorithm has been used to predict the trajectory of spilled oil, and the oil spill fate processes including advection and diffusion, surface spreading, evaporation, dissolution, entrainment, emulsification and shoreline interaction are taken into account. The model was applied to simulate the “Hyundai Advance” oil spill incident that happened in the Pearl River estuary, the simulated surface current filed is well calibrated with the historical observation data, and the simulated oil spill trajectory are in good agreement with the field observed data. The application study shows that the model can be used either as a real-time basis to predict the movement of oil spill or as a risk assessment tool for the possible impact of accidental oil spills.