A method for detecting a shift in a trend

Author

Philips, F.

Author_Institution

Dept. of Manage. in Sci. & Technol., Oregon Graduate Inst. of Sci. & Technol., Portland, OR

Volume

1

fYear

1999

fDate

1999

Abstract

This paper re-examines some frequently published (e.g. Conley, 1976; Henderson, 1979; Hax and Majluf, 1982; Stalk and Hout, 1990) price vs. cumulative production data for polyvinyl chloride. Using a new regression technique, the author shows that the resulting fitted curve captures the discontinuity of price change in this industry. Price reduction strategies are of great importance to high technology companies, and competitors´ price changes may reflect underlying “learning curve” reductions in their manufacturing costs. Ordinary linear and nonlinear regression techniques are not suitable for estimating or summarizing a company´s price reduction strategy. The technique used here is Phillips´ (1989) piecewise linear regression

Keywords

commerce; economics; management; piecewise linear techniques; statistical analysis; competition; cumulative production data; high technology companies; management; manufacturing costs; piecewise linear regression; polyvinyl chloride; price change discontinuity; price reduction strategies; trend shift detection method; Costs; Displays; Linear programming; Linear regression; Manufacturing industries; Piecewise linear techniques; Planning; Production; Statistics; Technology management;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Management of Engineering and Technology, 1999. Technology and Innovation Management. PICMET '99. Portland International Conference on

Conference_Location

Portland, OR

Print_ISBN

1-890843-02-4

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/PICMET.1999.808179

Filename

808179