Juglar cycles and their effects on technological changes

Summary form only given. This paper discusses how R&D have changed in Japan over the last half-century since the end of World War II (1945) and how they will be managed hereafter. They examine the effects of the Juglar cycle, a business cycle of which the period is about 10 years. It is sometimes called “major cycle”. It starts with a severe depression. The depression plays an important role in R&D management. With a growing sense of crisis during the depression, laboratories are reorganized and R&D targets are refreshed. Moreover, the depression causes the change of social requirements. Then, an economic boom occurs in the midst or the latter half of the cycle. New laboratories are established. Finally, it ends with another depression. They describe how one can easily foresee R&D management by making use of the periodicity of business cycles