Long-Term Security of Supply Assessment under Open Electricity Market - Energy Policy Impacts in Slovenia

Following the steady demand growth and diminishing generation capacity margin due to lack of generation investment, Slovenia is already importing almost a quarter of electricity needed to cover its demand. Coupled with the deregulated electricity market and the European Union (EU) climate change mitigation measures implemented through EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), the economic as well as environmental factors limit the necessary power system development and endanger future security of supply. A framework is needed to assess the generation expansion options taking into account all the limitations and associated risks, and to propose the optimal policy measures to insure long-term security of supply in Slovenia. In the paper, the current energy balance status is investigated, followed by several development scenarios for the period up to 2030. The paper briefly describes the Day-Ahead Market Simulator (ELMASplus), developed at the University of Ljubljana that is used to simulate the electricity price development on the market for the purpose of forecasting energy policy impacts in Slovenia. The simulation results are presented covering the future primary energy supply mix, power system adequacy indices, electricity import dependency, CO₂ emissions, electricity market prices and other relevant indicators. The two most promising development generation development scenarios with different associated risks are introduced and evaluated. Based on the results, the appropriate policy measures are suggested.