• DocumentCode
    3364714
  • Title

    Gray Neural Network Forecasting Model of Power Load Based on Ant Colony Algorithm Method

  • Author

    Niu, Dong-xiao ; Lv, Jia-liang ; Jia, Jian-rong

  • Author_Institution
    Sch. of Bus. Adm., NCEPU, Beijing
  • fYear
    2008
  • fDate
    4-6 Nov. 2008
  • Firstpage
    222
  • Lastpage
    226
  • Abstract
    Because power loads are influenced by various factors, and the changes of power load presents are complicate, the traditional forecasting methods are always not satisfied. According to the random-increase and non-linearity fluctuation of residual series, gray neural network forecasting can reflect the increase character and non-linearity relationship. This paper using the improved ACO method as the basis of combination weight making, so as to achieve the goal of optimizing the whole forecasting precision and find the combination weight that can exhibit the high consistency and high precision for the series values, finally the whole forecasting accuracy can be improved obviously. Through the calculation of the power loads in a province which is compared with other algorithms, the results prove that this method can effectively improve the accuracy of power load forecasting.
  • Keywords
    load forecasting; neural nets; power engineering computing; ant colony algorithm method; gray neural network; nonlinearity fluctuation; power load forecasting; Arithmetic; Differential equations; Fluctuations; Load forecasting; Load modeling; Neural networks; Optimization methods; Predictive models; Research and development management; Risk management; 1) model; BP neural network; GM (1; ant colony algorithm; power load;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    Risk Management & Engineering Management, 2008. ICRMEM '08. International Conference on
  • Conference_Location
    Beijing
  • Print_ISBN
    978-0-7695-3402-2
  • Type

    conf

  • DOI
    10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.30
  • Filename
    4673230