DocumentCode
3365440
Title
The Research on Real Estate Project Risk Evaluation Based on Monte Carlo Simulation and the Theory of Variable Weight
Author
Li Shuang-chen ; Yang Yu-mei
Author_Institution
Dept. of Econ. & Manage., North China Electr. Power Univ., Baoding
fYear
2008
fDate
4-6 Nov. 2008
Firstpage
449
Lastpage
454
Abstract
The paper improved the evaluation model of real estate project risk which based on Monte Carlo simulation technology. That is use three point which are maximum possible value, minimum possible value and the most possible value to estimate the risk variable. Using AHP method, variable weight of delivered and extended risk to determine the weight of each risk factor in the model objectively, and verifying the method validity by example. The result denote the model can be effective to evaluate the real estate project risks.
Keywords
Monte Carlo methods; construction industry; risk analysis; AHP; Monte Carlo simulation; real estate project risk evaluation; variable weight theory; Analytical models; Conference management; Energy management; Investments; Project management; Random variables; Research and development management; Risk analysis; Risk management; Technology management; monte carlo simulation; real estate; risk evaluation; variable weight;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
Risk Management & Engineering Management, 2008. ICRMEM '08. International Conference on
Conference_Location
Beijing
Print_ISBN
978-0-7695-3402-2
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.37
Filename
4673271
Link To Document