Title :
The Research on Real Estate Project Risk Evaluation Based on Monte Carlo Simulation and the Theory of Variable Weight
Author :
Li Shuang-chen ; Yang Yu-mei
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Econ. & Manage., North China Electr. Power Univ., Baoding
Abstract :
The paper improved the evaluation model of real estate project risk which based on Monte Carlo simulation technology. That is use three point which are maximum possible value, minimum possible value and the most possible value to estimate the risk variable. Using AHP method, variable weight of delivered and extended risk to determine the weight of each risk factor in the model objectively, and verifying the method validity by example. The result denote the model can be effective to evaluate the real estate project risks.
Keywords :
Monte Carlo methods; construction industry; risk analysis; AHP; Monte Carlo simulation; real estate project risk evaluation; variable weight theory; Analytical models; Conference management; Energy management; Investments; Project management; Random variables; Research and development management; Risk analysis; Risk management; Technology management; monte carlo simulation; real estate; risk evaluation; variable weight;
Conference_Titel :
Risk Management & Engineering Management, 2008. ICRMEM '08. International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Beijing
Print_ISBN :
978-0-7695-3402-2
DOI :
10.1109/ICRMEM.2008.37
