Title :
Analysis and control of bifurcations in continuous time macroeconomic systems
Author :
Barnett, William A. ; He, Yijun
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Econ., Washington Univ., St. Louis, MO, USA
Abstract :
We investigate bifurcation phenomena in the Bergstrom-Nowman-Wymer (1992) continuous time macroeconometric model of the United Kingdom. Both transcritical and Hopf bifurcations are considered with this model within the model´s region of plausible parameter settings. Hopf bifurcations are particularly useful since they may provide explanations for some cyclical phenomena in the macroeconomy. Numerical algorithms are designed to locate the bifurcation boundaries. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work on numerical determination of bifurcation boundaries for large scale macroeconomic systems. A notable and perhaps surprising fact is that both types of bifurcations can coexist with this well-regarded UK model-in the same neighborhood of the parameter space. Effect of the usual fiscal policy control on bifurcations is also examined
Keywords :
bifurcation; continuous time systems; economic cybernetics; large-scale systems; United Kingdom; bifurcations; continuous time systems; fiscal policy; large scale systems; macroeconometric model; Bifurcation; Continuous time systems; Control system analysis; Control systems; Differential equations; Econometrics; Economic forecasting; Macroeconomics; Predictive models; Stability;
Conference_Titel :
Decision and Control, 1998. Proceedings of the 37th IEEE Conference on
Conference_Location :
Tampa, FL
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-4394-8
DOI :
10.1109/CDC.1998.757787