Title :
A contact-network-based simulation model for evaluating interventions under “what-if” scenarios in epidemic
Author :
Tianyou Zhang ; Xuju Fu ; Lees, Michael ; Chee Keong Kwoh ; Lee, Gary Kee Khoon ; Goh, Rick Siow Mong
Author_Institution :
Inst. of High Performance Comput., Singapore, Singapore
Abstract :
Infectious disease pandemics/epidemics have been serious concerns worldwide. Simulations for public health interventions are practically helpful in assisting policy makers to make wise decisions to control and mitigate the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, we present our contact network based simulation model, which is designed to accommodate various “what-if” scenarios under single and combined interventions. With the incorporation of parallel computing and optimization techniques, our model is able to reflect the dynamics of disease spread in a realistic social contact network based on Singapore city, simulating combined intervention strategies as well as control effect at different levels of a social component. The framework of our model and experimental results show that it is a useful tool for epidemiological study and public health policy planning.
Keywords :
diseases; epidemics; health care; optimisation; parallel processing; social sciences; Singapore city; contact network based simulation model; disease spread dynamics; epidemiological study; infectious disease epidemic; infectious disease pandemic; intervention strategy; optimization technique; parallel computing; policy making; public health intervention; public health policy planning; social contact network; spread control; spread mitigation; what-if scenario; Computational modeling; Diseases; Educational institutions; Influenza; Public healthcare; Sociology; Statistics;
Conference_Titel :
Simulation Conference (WSC), Proceedings of the 2012 Winter
Conference_Location :
Berlin
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4673-4779-2
Electronic_ISBN :
0891-7736
DOI :
10.1109/WSC.2012.6465056