Wind turbine generator modeling for power production estimation & reliability analysis

This paper presents a modeling strategy for wind turbine generator power output using state duration sampling along with Markov chain approach. The proposed model is especially suitable for power production estimation and reliability analysis of a power system. The proposed strategy comprised of four steps: data clustering, state probability estimation, Monte Carlo estimation, and simulation of the output power. This strategy was implemented on MATLAB platform to model an existing wind power station. The results obtained validated to a reasonable extent the proposed strategy. The analysis and results are presented and discussed.