Cascading Failures Forecasting to Power Grid Based on Running State and Structure

Power grid cascading failures may cause large scale blackout and lead to serious consequences. On the basis of analyzing developing process of the typical cascading failures, branch static energy function model is constructed comprehensively, and an energy index is built to map the change of power flow. Meanwhile, a method by which the following-up cascading failures can be forecasted is proposed. The comprehensive margin index of the method combined with the electric betweenness that reflects the network structure vulnerability, taken the cumulative influence of previous failures, reflects the change of state and structure after the grid failure. The simulation results can search out a set of serious cascading failures, which shows the method is feasibility and validity.