Uncertainty in Life Cycle Cost of railway track

Life Cycle Cost (LCC) is used as a cost effective decision support for maintenance of railway track infrastructure. However, a fair degree of uncertainty associated with the estimation of LCC is due to the statistical characteristics of Reliability, Availability and Maintainability (RAM) parameters. This paper illustrates a methodology for estimation of uncertainty linked with LCC, by a combination of Design of Experiment (DoE) and Monte Carlo simulation. The paper also includes developed maintenance cost models for track and a case study of Banverket (Swedish National Rail Administration).