Probabilistic forecasting of airport capacity

Substantial research efforts in recent years have answered many questions regarding the interaction of weather and air traffic management (ATM), including the translation of weather to capacity impact within the National Airspace System (NAS). But important gaps remain and significant improvements are still possible. One such area of improvement is the forecasting of airport capacity. There is a need for the translation of airport weather to airport configuration, capacity and reconfiguration events. This paper describes how we use both air traffic management and meteorological data to model the impact of weather on airport capacity. These impacts can be used, along with en route airspace impact models, in traffic flow management solutions.