High-performance trajectory prediction for civil aircraft

High-performance trajectory prediction is at the core of strategic airspace capacity and safety enhancement. Current state-of-the-art trajectory prediction models are based on a three-dimensional point-mass model, using often predefined settings from existing databases rather than real-time information available onboard the aircraft to determine aircraft dynamics. As a result trajectory prediction performance is limited by the accuracy of these settings. This paper addresses this limitation and proposes a high-performance four-dimensional trajectory prediction model for civil aircraft. The model includes a new flight-control system and an enhanced flight-script. The latter incorporates new taxonomy and content enabling better definition of aircraft intent. The performance of the trajectory prediction model is assessed using data acquired during a real flight trial, and shown to be significantly better than the current models. It has the potential to meet the required navigation performance for departure, en-route and non-precision-approach phases of flight.