Evolutionary Development of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

Fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) form a convenient, simple, and powerful tool for simulation and analysis of dynamic systems. The popularity of FCMs stems from their simplicity and transparency. While being successful in a variety of application domains, FCMs are hindered by necessity of involving domain experts to develop the model. Since human experts are subjective and can handle only relatively simple networks (maps), there is an urgent need to develop methods for automated generation of FCM models. This study proposes a novel evolutionary learning that is able to generate FCM models from input historical data, and without any human intervention. The proposed method is based on genetic algorithms, and is carried out through supervised learning. The paper tests the method through a series of carefully selected experimental studies