Dynamic Changes in Subscriber Behavior and Their Impact on the Telecom Network in Cases of Emergency

The telecommunication network is recognized by the federal government as one of the critical national infrastructures that must be maintained and protected against debilitating attacks. We have previously shown how failures in the telecommunication network can quickly lead to telecommunication congestion and to extended delays in successful call completion. However, even if the telecom network remains fully operational, the special telecommunication demands that materialize at times of emergencies, and dynamically change based on subscriber behavior, can also adversely affect the performance of the overall telecommunication network. The network simulation modeling and analysis research tool (N-SMART) has been developed by Bell Labs as part of its work with the National Infrastructure Simulation and Analysis Center. This center is a joint program at Sandia National Laboratories and Los Alamos National Laboratory, funded and managed by the Department of Homeland Security´s (DHS) Preparedness Directorate. N-SMART is a discrete event (call level) telecom model that simulates capacities, blocking levels, retrials, and time to complete calls for both wireline and wireless networks. N-SMART supports the capability of simulating subscriber reattempt behaviour under various scenarios. Using this capability we show how the network can be adversely impacted by sudden changes in subscriber behavior. We also explore potential solutions and ways of mitigating those impacts