The analysis of China´s macro-economy with grey dynamic model in 30 years of reform and opening up

Macro-economic system is a multi-factor, multi-level, multi-aim typical grey system possessed of indefinite. It´s running process is a grey dynamic one composed of many relations of many complex structures and interlaced functions. By using the grey systematic theory model, this paper studies two major problems in China´s macro-economic system during the reform and opening up. Firstly, it obtains the relational grades between the gross domestic product (GDP) and the three industries (primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry), the productive values of the three industries and their internal industries according to the grey dynamic relation analysis. It also builds the industrial related trees of China´s macro-economy in each ¿Five-Year Plan¿ period. Secondly, it analyzes the economic cycle of China since 1990s and forecasts the economic scale for the next cycle through GM (1, 1) model and the analysis of the residual error. Moreover, it analyzes the dynamic change of China´s macro-economy, the development state and existing problems, meanwhile, counter-measures and suggestions are put forward to provide a scientific basis for China´s macro-economic adjustment and the further economic growth.