Title :
Oil price forecasting based on self-organizing data mining
Author :
Yi, Yao ; Qin, Ni
Author_Institution :
Coll. of Math. Sci., Nanjing Normal Univ., Nanjing, China
Abstract :
The fluctuation of oil prices attracts the great attention of the world. However, the prediction of oil prices is very difficult because the oil price system is so complex. In this paper, AR-GMDH algorithm and AC algorithm are adopted to forecast oil prices. The validity and feasibility of self-organizing data mining are manifested by the comparisons of the prediction result with that of conventional statistical methods. The result shows that self-organizing data mining is a precise method to forecast such complex systems.
Keywords :
autoregressive processes; data mining; oils; pricing; statistical analysis; AC algorithm; AR-GMDH algorithm; general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity; oil price forecasting system; self-organizing data mining; statistical methods; Data mining; Econometrics; Fluctuations; Intelligent systems; Nonlinear dynamical systems; Petroleum; Power system modeling; Prediction methods; Predictive models; Statistical analysis;
Conference_Titel :
Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, 2009. GSIS 2009. IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Nanjing
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4914-9
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4916-3
DOI :
10.1109/GSIS.2009.5408129