• DocumentCode
    3409906
  • Title

    Gray Verhulst modeling prediction and education research for Beijing SARS

  • Author

    Boming, Yin ; Yuanbo, Wang

  • Author_Institution
    Shanghai Pudong Inst. of Educ. Dev., Shanghai, China
  • fYear
    2009
  • fDate
    10-12 Nov. 2009
  • Firstpage
    497
  • Lastpage
    501
  • Abstract
    In 2003 year, Beijing SARS epidemic is a process of gray system, which related to government decision-making, health prevention and treatment, scientific research, transportation, architectural building of site, indigenous communities, material suppliers and so on. The published data of SARS cases from March 31th to April 18th are not allowed to incomplete data. So that the author studied the ways to fill the data into the large array, and on May 9th completion the modeling of the Beijing SARS. The model successfully predicted the cumulative eventual number of SARS cases at 2512 people (the actual number is 2521 people), about May 21th new SARS cases entered the single-digit growth stage, during the days from May 30th to June 10th entered the saturation phase of zero growth. Model prediction accuracy has reached 99.2%.
  • Keywords
    diseases; grey systems; Beijing SARS epidemic; government decision making; gray Verhulst modeling prediction; health prevention; scientific research; Accuracy; Buildings; Communities; Computer science education; Decision making; Diseases; Intelligent structures; Intelligent transportation systems; Local government; Predictive models;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, 2009. GSIS 2009. IEEE International Conference on
  • Conference_Location
    Nanjing
  • Print_ISBN
    978-1-4244-4914-9
  • Electronic_ISBN
    978-1-4244-4916-3
  • Type

    conf

  • DOI
    10.1109/GSIS.2009.5408262
  • Filename
    5408262