Title :
Analyze on response of runoff to climate change based on the modified GM(1,2) model
Author :
Li, Xinan ; Yang, Fan ; Hu, Caihong ; Liu, Lina
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Water Conservancy & Environ. Eng., Zhengzhou Univ., Zhengzhou, China
Abstract :
A modified GM (1,2) model is proposed to simulate the runoff. Zhoukou and Tanghe station was taken as an example. The results show that the modified model was a means to better understand the significance of runoff variability upon climate change. The influence of the future climate change on hydrological processes was discussed. The runoff in this valley is projected on this basis according to the precipitation information provided from the IPCC. The results show that the tendency of runoff is increasing in next 100 years and the growth rate of runoff is differentiation in different scenario.
Keywords :
climatology; environmental management; grey systems; climate change; hydrological processes; modified GM(1,2) model; precipitation information; Analytical models; Cities and towns; Global warming; Humans; Intelligent systems; Predictive models; Sustainable development; Temperature; Water conservation; Water resources;
Conference_Titel :
Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, 2009. GSIS 2009. IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Nanjing
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4914-9
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4916-3
DOI :
10.1109/GSIS.2009.5408282
