Estimation for HIV transmission using a reduced order uncertainty observer

In this work, the problem of estimating the susceptible and the recent infective, not yet in treatment, groups in a determinate male homosexual population is addressed. The estimation methodology is based on reduced order observers with proportional and integral measurement error contribution, considering measurements of male homosexual population and infective, undergoing treatment, groups. These estimates allow inference, in some sense, of the HIV transmission dynamics in order to propose a more adequate health policy. Numerical simulations were carried out showing the good performance of the estimation methodology proposed