GENCO behavior model and simulation in electricity market by FCM-approach

Simulation can be implemented in various field of electricity market. There are many reasons that market players and regulators are very interested in anticipating the behavior of the market. Behavior of a generation company (GENCO) in electricity market is an important factor affecting the market behavior. Many factors affect on GENCO´s behavior directly and indirectly. In this study, a new approach based on fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) is introduced to model and simulate GENCO´s behavior in the electricity market with respect to profit maximization. The complicated relations between strategic goals and associated factors can be understood by decision makers using of FCM. This paper examines how effective factors affect on a GENCO´s profit. Analyst can build and then analyze a FCM for recognizing key factors corresponding to the goal. To analyze this problem, two cases as simple FCM and weighted FCM are considered. Simple FCM show how determined factors affect on goal. A hidden pattern is obtained by this case. Weighted FCM helps sensitive analysis of the model. In addition, analyst can advantageously use the weighted FCM to clearly quantifying the composite resulted effects from multiple factors changes. This application is shown by a numerical example.