Quantitative analysis of serial criminal

The object of this paper is to establish a useful mathematical model to predict the next possible criminal location of serial crimes. Using methods such as geography portrait circle hypothesis, spatial location fitting, geographical profiling, and grey prediction, we provide three different plans, one synthesis plan and one grey prediction model. These models are useful to predict the anchor point of serial criminal offenders and next possible criminal location, thus give some instruction for local police agency to investigate serial crimes. Finally, we use computer to establish the simulation system of criminal action. The accuracy and stability of the simulation system are also tested.