Fuzzy risk and calculation

Reviewing some concepts of fuzzy risk, we give a new definition of fuzzy risk. To improve probability-risk analysis, we propose the concept of possibility-probability distribution. Fuzzy sets are employed to show the imprecision of probability estimation. We use the information distribution method to calculate a possibility-probability distribution instead of expert experience. With a flood example, we show how to calculate a fuzzy risk, where the probability of exceeding losses is not one value but a fuzzy number. The benefit of this result is that one can easily understand the imprecision of risk assessment of natural disasters when data is lacking