Proposing an advanced computational method for completion time estimation of the New Product Development (NPD) projects

The characteristic of the New Product Development (NPD) is to use project method for preparing the prototype or constructing the first version of products. Thus, time and cost of the completed projects and those differentiations with the scheduled time and cost is a critical subject in this area because in NPD projects, on time delivery within budget is a primary factor that highlights the significance of forecasting the completion time and cost of a project during its execution. In this paper, we proposed a computational intelligence method based on Locally Linear Neurofuzzy (LLNF) method for estimation and prediction of the time and cost of the projects based on the Earned Value Management (EVM), a systematic approach used to calculate variances and indices for both cost and schedule, and to forecast the total estimated cost at completion for the project, before it is completed. Our model has been evaluated by a simulation study using a progress generator program for typical Resource Constrained Project Schedule Problem (RCPSP) project library. The actual cost and actual duration of the NPD project gained by the simulation was calculated.