Research on Probability of Emergency

Wide varieties of potential hazards exist in industrial production process. They are different among diverse industries and distinct scales of production for various storage circumstances of raw materials. The management agencies under government and enterprises, and the safety evaluation personnel should pay close attention to the accident-prone places and the probability of the incidents in those areas. Effective measures to guard these places may avoid major incidents from occurrence in a certain degree. Some extremely dangerous source contains chemical, physical or toxic properties, which could lightly lead to fires, explosion or poisoning, so tremendous threats to life and safety may be faced. Starting from the standpoint of major dangerous source possibly causing emergency, this paper proposes a probability module for the emergency incidents by combining with Markov probability prediction theory, and presents the evaluation methods for the competence of individual or a team for such sources. According to the data from some enterprises which use liquid chlorine and vinyl chloride as the raw materials, the module is testified.