Forecast Modeling and Practical Analysis of Equipment Developing Scale

The similar growth mechanism of equipment scale and single species scale was analyzed. Then, take the equipment expenditure scale as monetary measurement of equipment scale, the basic growth model of equipment expenditure scale was established on the base of Multhus model of single species growth. Next, take the equipment expenditure scale growth ratio as linear minus function, the basic model was modified. To make the model suit to forecast the equipment expenditure scale, genetic algorithm was used to seek the best parameters in model. In the end, the growth law of equipment expenditure scale in typical countries is analyzed practically. And the equipment expenditure scale in our country was forecasted. Both the results of analysis and forecasting indicate the validity and feasibility of the researching methods.