An effective algorithm of the power system probabilistic optimal dispatching

This paper presents an effective algorithm to solve the power system probabilistic optimal dispatching model with the objective of minimizing the expected total operating cost. The Markov chain is used to forecast each probability of the power system possible operating state at the dispatching time period. Based on the transmission element outage distribution factors, the credible critical contingency states can be identified from the full possible operating states to form the effective contingency-set. Compared to the traditional method of solving the probabilistic optimal dispatching problem with fixed steady probability and full contingency-set, the probability forecasting precision of the credible contingency states and the model computation efficiency have been improved significantly by this proposed algorithm. Finally, the analysis of the IEEE-30 test system shows that the proposed algorithm is reasonable and effective.