Economy and reliability evaluation of generating including wind energy systems

The analysis method used a sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique for wind power modeling and reliability assessment, which is based on an hourly random simulation to mimic the operation of a generating system, taking the wind speeds, the random failure of generating units, and other recognized dependencies into account. An auto-regressive and moving average time series model is used to simulate the hourly wind speeds and thus the available wind power considering chronological characteristics. Considering unit random failures, the analysis model also obtains system available capacity at points in time established sequentially, which provides the probability of existence of each possible outage capacity level. The system reliability index then is formed by observing the probability function of outage capacity over a sufficiently long time period. A number of sensitivity analyses are presented with case studies to illustrate possible applications of the proposed method.