Analysis of the mobile telephone diffusion

Summary form only given. Mobile telephone technology and wireless communication are one of the fastest growing sectors in the electronics industry. The purpose of the work was to discuss the main factors affecting in the diffusion of new mobile telephone technology. The work was based on the idea of the heuristic diffusion model (HDM), which was introduced and further developed to suit to the target field. Participants of the work were specialists in the field and the basic idea of the HDM was further adjusted to explain the important phenomena inside the complex process of mobile telephone diffusion. In HDM, instead of the mathematical exactness, the typical features of the process are disassembled from the empirical data available. This will produce some useful information typically hidden inside the mathematical formula. The goal of the heuristic model is to increase understanding on the diffusion process; based on this knowledge further analysis are possible even in the case of short time series of empirical data and even in the case of short product lifecycles. The result of the application of the HDM is the diffusion process description including feature information important for the analyst. The main conclusion of the research are: mobile phone diffusion has strong dependence on the usage groups; as an application of the heuristic diffusion model, the overall mobile phone diffusion consists of separate diffusions for each usage group; one usage group will be the “early adopter”, others will then follow; drivers change as diffusion progresses; and services will have an increasingly important role