Reliability and Accuracy of the Estimation Process - Wideband Delphi vs. Wisdom of Crowds

This research paper addresses the reliability of estimation techniques based on technical knowledge possessed by software engineers. The goal was to identify weaknesses and limitations in the estimation practices based on Wideband Delphi method and to propose an alternative solution. The initial experiment highlights the results of employing a different estimation method based on Wisdom of Crowds approach and compares them to standard Wideband Delphi approach. The estimation was focused on the expected quality of the software release -- predicting the distribution pattern of defects among the system components which would be found throughout the development and test phases (before reaching the customer). The final results for both estimation techniques were evaluated against real system data (the software product release development in the public safety domain).