A probabilistic approach to life cycle management

The work described in this paper is a continuation of previous studies. A simple approach is presented to evaluating the costs over the life cycle of a system, structure or component under various maintenance policies. The process of comparing and analyzing the economics of alternative maintenance plans is called Life Cycle Management. The goal is to identify the policy where the total cost of repairs, maintenance, lost production and consequential expenses (expressed in their present values) is the lowest. The novel feature of the approach is that it is based on Monte Carlo simulations, permitting the use of time distributions other than exponential. Steps of the calculations are discussed and, in the end, typical output information is shown consisting of several graphs and tabulations.