Optimal power flow using probabilistic load model

Optimal power flow (OPF) analysis has been an area attracting lots of researchers. Much computational efforts have been exercised for the last several years to develop mathematical models and computational techniques to solve OPF problems. Conventional OPF studies are carried out considering the injections at the bus to be deterministic. This paper presents a method to compute the maximum load the system can support taking into account a probabilistic model of load. The load is modeled as a continuous variable whose probability density is bell shaped. Thus for a given range of bus injections, an optimal value of real and reactive load at each bus is computed. The results of the methodology can be of significance in optimal load shedding in deregulated power systems. The ´Solver´ in EXCEL is used as an optimization tool to demonstrate the methodology. A simple 8-bus system is used to display the results.