DocumentCode :
3509657
Title :
Prediction on moonlet power system data based on modified probability neural network
Author :
Tao, Laifa ; Luan, Jiahui ; Lu, Chen
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Syst. Eng., Beihang Univ., Beijing, China
fYear :
2009
fDate :
20-24 July 2009
Firstpage :
864
Lastpage :
867
Abstract :
In this paper, an approach is proposed for time series prediction based on modified probability neural network (MPNN). Bayesian-statistics and decision-making theories and non-parameters density function estimation using Parzen-window function are applied to MPNN. The efficiency of the approach was demonstrated by a case study, an application for prediction on moonlet power system data, through comparison with other methods the linear ARMA model and the nonlinear widely used BP neural network. It was found that MPNN has the highest precision with the least time cost. Consequently, it verified and illustrated that large number of battery data can be predicted quickly and accurately using MPNN, moreover, it is valuable in the field of moonlet power system data prediction.
Keywords :
Bayes methods; decision making; neural nets; power engineering computing; probability; space power generation; Bayesian-statistics; Parzen-window function; decision-making theory; modified probability neural network; moonlet power system; non-parameter density function estimation; Batteries; Bayesian methods; Data engineering; Decision theory; Neural networks; Power engineering and energy; Power system modeling; Power system reliability; Power systems; Predictive models; Modified PNN; battery; moonlet power system; prediction; time series;
fLanguage :
English
Publisher :
ieee
Conference_Titel :
Reliability, Maintainability and Safety, 2009. ICRMS 2009. 8th International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Chengdu
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4903-3
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4905-7
Type :
conf
DOI :
10.1109/ICRMS.2009.5269957
Filename :
5269957
Link To Document :
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