Probabilistic reliability assessment in the optimization of hybrid power generating units

The unit size optimization analysis for a typical IT company is performed considering hybrid wind - solar systems. The stochastic effects in all the parameters in the optimization models are taken into consideration for estimating power reliability. While weibull distributions are representatives of wind speed and solar insolation data, normal distributions are assumed for hourly load variations. Both deterministic optimization analysis and probabilistic risk assessment results are presented. Typically 15 PVC, 19 wind turbines and 27 battery units meet the power demand at a cost of energy around 0.55 $/ kWhr. Power reliability is estimated to increase steeply with power generating units initially, but tends to get saturated thereafter with diminishing slope.