Title :
Monthly Peak-load Demand Forecasting for Sulaimany Governorate Using SARIMA.
Author :
Kareem, Y.H. ; Majeed, A.R.
Author_Institution :
Sulaimany Univ.
Abstract :
This paper presents a monthly peak-load demand forecasting for Sulaimany Governorate (located in northern Iraq) for the year 2006, using the most widely used traditional method, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA). We have found that adequate SARIMA model is (1,1,0)(0,2,1)12, the performance of the model is tested on the actual historical monthly demand of the Governorate for the year 2005. The results obtained shows a very good estimation of the load. That is, the mean absolute percentage error MAPE is 1.235
Keywords :
load forecasting; SARIMA; Sulaimany Governorate; monthly peak-load demand forecasting for; northern Iraq; seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average; Demand forecasting; Economic forecasting; Electronic mail; Environmental economics; Load forecasting; Power generation; Power generation economics; Predictive models; Sociotechnical systems; Stochastic systems; Autocorrelation; Load forecasting; Partial autocorrelation; Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA);
Conference_Titel :
Transmission & Distribution Conference and Exposition: Latin America, 2006. TDC '06. IEEE/PES
Conference_Location :
Caracas
Print_ISBN :
1-4244-0287-5
Electronic_ISBN :
1-4244-0288-3
DOI :
10.1109/TDCLA.2006.311383
