Title :
Comparison of probability of failure by monte carlo (MC) and number theoretical net (NT-net) simulation
Author_Institution :
Hunan Provincial Key Lab. of Health Maintenance for Mech. Equip., Hunan Univ. of Sci. & Technol., Xiangtan, China
Abstract :
As performance requirements of engineering structures are becoming more ambitious, the need for analysis of uncertainties and computation of probabilities has been growing. Based on poor computational accuracy at small to median sample sizes of Monte Carlo (MC) simulation techniques in estimating the probability failure of engineering structures, the number theoretical net (NT-net) methodology is proposed to reduce computing effort. A comparison of both the Monte Carlo (MC) and the number theoretical net (NT-net) in estimating probability of failure is provided. The simulation result for a cantilever beam shows that the sample size needed by NT-net method is about 10% of that necessary by the MC-based method to achieve the same level accuracy.
Keywords :
Monte Carlo methods; beams (structures); cantilevers; estimation theory; failure analysis; number theory; probability; sampling methods; MC-based method; Monte Carlo simulation technique; NT-net simulation; cantilever beam; engineering structure; failure probability estimation; median sample size; number theoretical net simulation; performance requirements; Analytical models; Computational modeling; Design engineering; Laboratories; Monte Carlo methods; Performance analysis; Sampling methods; Structural beams; Uncertainty; Yield estimation; Monte Carlo simulation; cantilever beam; failure probability;
Conference_Titel :
Reliability, Maintainability and Safety, 2009. ICRMS 2009. 8th International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Chengdu
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4903-3
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-4905-7
DOI :
10.1109/ICRMS.2009.5270164
