Prioritizing Short-Term Investments in Distribution Networks with Uncertainty Modeled by Fuzzy Numbers

Prioritizing short-term investments and risk assessment have become a necessity for utilities due to new regulatory frameworks based on performance and uncertainties in the planning parameters. In this paper, uncertainty modeled by means of fuzzy numbers is proposed since they take into account the possibility of occurrence of different future values of the planning parameters. System performance evaluation and economic evaluation are described. These evaluations are applied to different short-term investment alternatives that compete to improve distribution network areas with problems, taking into consideration the data uncertainty. Then, an investment hierarchy according to a confidence level, which is based on the economic profit and the associated risk, is achieved using a method for ranking fuzzy numbers. A numerical example is given to illustrate the applications and results