Title :
A Short-Term Forecast Method for Demand Quantities in Semiconductor Manufacturing
Author :
Habla, C. ; Driebel, R. ; Mönch, L. ; Ponsignon, T. ; Ehm, H.
Author_Institution :
Univ. of Hagen, Hagen
Abstract :
In this paper, we study a forecast method for demand quantities in semiconductor manufacturing. We formulate and test a parameter-driven scheme to generate forecasts. We forecast demand quantities using the formula F = aX + bY where a and b are non-negative parameters to be estimated, X is a simple exponential smoothing forecast based on historical data, and Y are the firm orders that have been placed for the product for the current month. The parameters a, b, and the exponential smoothing parameters are chosen to optimize a statistical measure of forecast quality. We develop a spreadsheet model to address this problem. We suggest several forecast accuracy performance measures. We present the results of computational experiments on real-world data that clearly demonstrate that the suggested approach outperforms the current forecast approach.
Keywords :
demand forecasting; semiconductor device manufacture; demand quantities; forecast accuracy performance measures; semiconductor manufacturing; short-term forecast method; spreadsheet model; Computer aided manufacturing; Costs; Demand forecasting; Manufacturing automation; Parameter estimation; Pulp manufacturing; Semiconductor device manufacture; Smoothing methods; Testing; USA Councils;
Conference_Titel :
Automation Science and Engineering, 2007. CASE 2007. IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Scottsdale, AZ
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-1154-2
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-1154-2
DOI :
10.1109/COASE.2007.4341724