Wind power forecasting with dynamic regression models and ageing considerations

The penetration of wind power is increasing rapidly in electricity grids around the world. Many governments have set specific targets on the amount of electricity to be produced by wind energy. Due to the intermittent nature of wind, one of the biggest challenges remaining is accurate and robust forecasting of wind power output. Most research so far has focused on predicting wind speeds only. This paper proposes an improved model for short term forecasting of wind power output considering not just the wind speed but also effects of ageing. Simulated model results show that wind turbines reaching end of life produce significantly less power.