Unconditioned reflex Demand of instant drinks consumption

We know that Demand cannot be created. Usually Marketing Skills focus on discovery/awareness/recall of consumer´s demand. Unconditioned reflex behaviors are those driven by natural factors, not referring to those man-made training process/advertising/coupon/price cut/display etc. How to measure this kind of segment market size? This topic is helpful for target design, sales value forcast, supply chain management, ROI research and contributes to avoiding bullwhips effect. The authors try to find instant drink demand model to discover the trend of value due to temperature changing on scanner data of VCS chain store.