Value system evolution towards a Cognitive Radio era: Implications of underlying market dynamics

This paper explores the possibilities of how the value system around wireless networks could be organized in the future and what would be the underlying market dynamics given the introduction of Cognitive Radio and Dynamic Spectrum Access technologies. Using a combination of systems thinking tools and platform theory four value system configurations around the future radio platform are introduced and the corresponding underlying dynamics are characterized. Based on this a feedback model using system dynamics and agent based modeling is built, configured with historical market data and used to evaluate future evolution possibilities both for GSM based mobile cellular and Wi-Fi based wireless local area radio platform paths. The results show how the value system could continue on established evolution paths but also how it could transition to a so called complex adaptive system. Furthermore, for policy makers, the results point out threats of winner-takes-all and fragmentation type of scenarios, and highlight the possible importance of aligning the underlying market dynamics with the natural allocation and assignment cycle of spectrum frequency bands.